Event report

On 10 December 2021, the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT) organized an online public event entitled “The EU-Russia-China Triangle: Post-Covid-19 Scenarios in the Eastern Partnership Region“. The speaker of the event was Dr. Elkhan Nuriyev, Think Visegrad Research Fellow at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade and Senior Expert on Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia at L&M Political Risk and Strategy Advisory in Vienna. The discussant was Viktor Eszterhai, Senior Research Fellow of IFAT. The event was moderated by György Ilyash, Research Fellow of IFAT. In his opening remarks, Mr. Ilyash stressed the importance of the Eurasian region in global politics. Dr. Elkhan Nuriyev introduced the trilateral relationship between the European Union, Russia, and China. In his speech, he focused on the strategic aspects of the security architecture in the region, recent developments, various initiatives, and regional integration projects, and presented his ideas on ways to promote cooperative efforts to foster greater stability and peace in the region. He stressed that the Eastern European region plays a crucial role in connecting Europe and Asia, and is, therefore, a region of high importance for all three powers concerned. In this context, he cited the historical, economic, and geopolitical links of the EU and Russia with the region, as well as China’s flagship project, the One Belt One Road Initiative. He pointed out that the EU is clearly incapable of building international support for Russian interests and that the economic future of the post-Soviet countries depends on the proactivity of the EU, Russia, and China and their cooperation with the Eastern Partnership countries. After Dr. Nuriyev’s presentation, Viktor Eszterhai explained the geopolitical background of the concept of Eurasia and stressed that the region’s rapprochement could be relevant from a geo-economic perspective. He then asked Dr. Nuriyev about the impact of non-state actors on the cooperation of the three major powers, which have emerged as increasingly important political factors in the era of connectivity. He also asked to what extent the United States sees Eurasian unification as a challenge and what successful strategies it can pursue to prevent it. In his response, Dr. Elkhan Nuriyev explained that the current situation is not a new Cold War, as many would say, but a chess game with hot spots such as Syria, Afghanistan, and North Korea. According to him, Western policymakers are unfamiliar with the Eurasian chessboard where Western powers play without knowing their opponent’s starting strategies and without being able to predict the other side’s behavior. Russia is clearly ahead in this geopolitical game. Dr. Nuriyev pointed out that dialogue between the major powers concerned is crucial because, without it, each party and the Eurasian region will be losers in global processes. The event then continued with questions from the audience. Regarding the EU’s role as an independent actor and an important pillar of the world, Dr. Nuriyev mentioned that the EU currently lacks the will to be independent on this issue and needs a new geostrategic approach. György Ilyash asked a final question about the type of conflicts that might arise in the future between Russia and China, which are currently cooperating. Dr. Nuriyev acknowledged the possibility of this scenario in the case of rivalry, but he personally considered this unlikely, given that the two have historically always sought to find common ground, and he moreover highlighted the current convergence of interests between the two great powers.